India team for NZ ODIs, plus first thoughts on IPL09

So if there is one thing that this meaningless ODI series in Sri Lanka has taught us, it is the redundancy of Sachin Tendulkar in the shorter format of the game. One certainly feels for Sachin – he did, after all, get three horrendous decisions before being “rested” for the rest of the series. But the point is, we did just fine even with his failures. But his presence in the side for the first half of the series meant that we missed a chance to give Rohit Sharma a proper run, or to build our bench strength by taking along the likes of the hapless Badrinath.

So, as I sit down to pick my team to New Zealand for the ODIs there, the first name I strike off the list is Sachin’s. And this is for the same reasons I mentioned in my previous post: unless one is certain that he is integral to our World Cup 2011 plans, and will be at his best then at age 38, playing him now in inconsequential games just blocks up the pipeline, and prevents the important development of other young talent. A proper series in New Zealand will give Rohit a wealth of valuable experience – they are a more than useful one-day side (possibly as good or better than Sri Lanka), and these will be new conditions for him. Why not give him a proper run of five games there?

The rest of the batting order pretty much selects itself. Gambhir showed how devastating he can be at the top of the order once Sachin was rested, and that is where he should be batting. Yuvraj’s form has been phenomenal, and he has now won two man of the series awards in a row. It is hard to recognize in him now the forlorn figure in Australia at this time a year ago. So he should be getting as many overs as possible to bat. Raina continues to impress in his second coming, and looks very comfortable now in the one-day middle order, with his electric fielding adding immense value to the side. Dhoni remains the fulcrum of the side, both as batsman and captain. And young Yusuf Pathan has played some thumping knocks down the order, all the while developing his nagging off-spin. Playing in New Zealand conditions will be valuable new experience for him also, and at this point he completely looks the part as an India player to me. The only person with something really to prove amongst the batsmen is Rohit, and I really feel he deserves a proper run now to prove it.

The bowling is a little trickier, but not much. Zaheer and Ishant are certainties, while Praveen Kumar showed in Sri Lanka just how stupid it was to leave him out of the one-day scheme of things even briefly. All three of them will enjoy conditions in New Zealand, and PK’s wicket-to-wicket swing, I think, will be particularly useful there.

Pragyan Ojha was also a revelation in Sri Lanka, making me eat my many uncharitable words about him. However, I’m not sure that playing two spinners really makes sense in New Zealand, especially since all our part timers are spinners as well. Hence, I would play Irfan Pathan ahead of Ojha in the 11. It is true that Irfan has looked a bit iffy in Sri Lanka, but I still back his natural talent. His swing bowling can be very effective in New Zealand, and his lower order batting skills will be useful to fall back on against a team whose bowling is its strong suit. Irfan’s critics are ready to come out at the drop of a hat, but let us remember that just a year ago, he was Man of the Match in our Test win at Perth, and followed that up by leading Punjab’s attack most effectively in the IPL. I am convinced there is a quality cricketer waiting to make his mark there. In any case, his likely replacement would be Munaf Patel, who hardly has the temperament of a Glenn McGrath, whose batting skills are woeful in comparison to Irfan’s, and who will be coming off injury. So why not give Irfan a proper chance, instead of just playing him in the odd dead rubber here or there?

This only leaves the question of the bench. I think, in Sachin’s absence, that Badri has to be brought into the picture, and there are enough posts in these pages to suggest why I think he is so good. Raina and Rohit are ahead of him in the ODI stakes in the moment, but in Rohit’s case at least, just about. He needs to be part of the picture. I would also, without hesitation, retain Ravindra Jadeja. He has looked the part as a lower-order batsman ever since the IPL, and his half-century on debut in Sri Lanka was a most impressive affair. But Shane Warne didn’t use him as a bowler, and in the interim he has been one of the most successful bowlers in the Ranji Trophy this year. There is real all-round potential here. One of India’s glaring weaknesses of late has been the absence of quality all-rounders, which really hurts the balance of the side in one-day games. But now, we have Irfan, Yusuf and Jadeja all in the running – none of them finished products, but all capable of playing a role in 2011. To me, that is a very exciting development.

For the reserve fast bowler, I will bring back Munaf Patel, who should be fit. Munaf’s one outing in Sri Lanka was disappointing, and I for one am delighted that Laxmipaty Balaji is back in the fray, since he is one of my favorite cricketers. But Balaji’s own performance was nothing to write home about in the one chance he got (his figures of 5-0-32-0 were identical to Munaf’s in the first ODI). And more importantly, Balaji has for some reason never thrived in one-dayers. This is odd, given that he is basically a line and length bowler. But while he has always looked threatening and taken wickets in 4- and 5-day games, he has tended to be expensive and ineffective in one-dayers. When it comes to selecting the side for Tests, I would without hesitation put Balaji ahead of Munaf; just as I would likely put R.P. Singh in ahead of Irfan. But for the one-dayers, I would look at Munaf’s strong performances over the past six months and retain him.

I would give the last spot to Pragyan Ojha. I would do so even if Harbhajan is fit. Bhajji has probably done enough in terms of sheer weight of wickets to be India’s number 1 Test spinner. But I still don’t think that he has necessarily been more impressive, or looked more threatening, than other spinners who are fighting for a place in the side, like Mishra or Piyush Chawla or more recently Ojha. Ojha will learn and develop as a bowler by getting a chance in New Zealand, where conditions won’t help him as much as in Sri Lanka. He will also be helped by watching and playing against Daniel Vettori, definitely the best left-arm spinner in the game today. I’d bring Bhaj back in for the Tests, but given the glimpses of his ability that he’s shown in Sri Lanka, Ojha deserves a little more rope.

That means that my team is:

Gautam Gambhir
Virendra Sehwag (V)
Yuvraj Singh
Suresh Raina
Mahendra Dhoni © (W)
Rohit Sharma
Yusuf Pathan
Irfan Pathan
Praveen Kumar
Zaheer Khan
Ishant Sharma

Reserves:

Subramaniam Badrinath
Ravindra Jadeja
Munaf Patel
Pragyan Ojha

This means a top 5 that packs a real bunch; and a bottom 3 who will be a real threat against New Zealand’s fragile top order. Numbers 6, 7 and 8 are still works in progress – but if they are given proper encouragement, and start fulfilling their potential, then we really have a crackerjack core of a team for the next World Cup, because there is enormous talent in Rohit, Yusuf and Irfan (and their back-ups, Badri, Jadeja and Munaf).

A little IPL parenthesis. The auction has thrown up some interesting choices. Bangalore has expectedly made the big play by signing on Pietersen, but to me it is Chennai, Delhi and Mumbai that really look formidable. Chennai’s first-string foreign players include Hayden, Hussey, Flintoff, Albie Morkel, Ntini and Murali; given last year’s performances, Murali’s place might be the most vulnerable of this lot. That is really saying something, and that’s even without looking at a virtual India middle-order of Raina, Dhoni and Badri. Morkel might be the least known of the lot, but he is a real impact player in this format, and one of the few South Africans who came good last year. The South Africans will also be available for the duration of the tournament, so Morkel has a good chance of being this year’s Shane Watson.

Delhi’s middle order was weak last time, but I think it will be stronger this time. They have given up the consistent Shikhar Dhawan, but have the talented Australian David Warner. A top 3 of Gambhir, Sehwag and Warner is scary good, and for the no. 4 spot, they can choose between three extremely talented players in A.B. de Villiers, Tillakaratne Dilshan and Owais Shah. De Villiers disappointed last year, but there is such talent there, and even when he’s not making runs he’s worth 20 in the field even over 20 overs. This is backed up by the miserly duo of Glenn McGrath and Daniel Vettori, the latter, this time, available for the duration of the tournament. So you have some of the hardest hitters in the tournament, and a couple of the hardest bowlers to hit. The all-round skills of Fervez Maharoof and Rajat Bhatia don’t match up to those of Morkel and Flintoff; but in terms of specialists, Delhi is as good or better than anyone in the mix. And they have two quality spinners in Vettori and Mishra, which (if Murali doesn’t play) is two more than Chennai. Spinners played a huge role last year, and I think that teams with versatile spin attacks will have an advantage.

Mumbai, meanwhile, look very balanced, and J.P. Duminy in the middle order makes for a very good team at 4, 5 and 6 (Duminy, Bravo and Nayar). There is Sachin and Sanath at the top, and the no. 3 spot will be fought between the talented youngsters Dhawan and Ajinkya Rahane. Dhawan was outstanding for Delhi last year, but has had a quiet domestic season since. Rahane didn’t get much of a chance last year, but has been colossal for Mumbai, and should be at the periphery of the national selectors’ vision. Zaheer’s signing from Bangalore will help their bowling, and he will be partnered by either Lasith Malinga or Jerome Taylor, both potential match-winners, and supported by Dhawal Kulkarni, who after a sensational debut year in the Ranji Trophy must surely be knocking at doors.

Rajasthan will certainly be without the services of their two heroes Watson and Sohail Tanvir, and probably without the services of the third, Graeme Smith. This is a team with enormous self-belief, but those three will be hard to replace. Morne Morkel for Tanvir is probably the safest switch; Tyron Henderson will have big shoes to fill as he takes over Watson’s role; but somehow, I can’t see Justin Langer having the same impact as Smith at the top of the order. Had I been bidding, I would personally have gone after Brad Haddin here – Mahesh Rawat was the one weak spot in the Rajasthan side, looking ordinary behind the stumps and doing nothing whatsoever with the bat. Haddin would have provided a fine wicket-keeping option, while providing a more aggressive opening option than Langer will. Given the strength of their opposition, a repeat performance for the Royals seems unlikely, but who can put anything past Warne?

I certainly see Mumbai as semi-finalists this time, and the team that seems most in danger is Punjab. They have talent, but too much of it is fragile. Three of their star players, Sangakkara, Jayawardene, and Lee, have been going through patches ranging from the mediocre to the horrible; other key players such as Sreesanth and Irfan are, well, hardly predictable. And it is going to take a lot for Shaun Marsh to match the extremely high bar he set himself last year. There may be far fewer Preity Zinta hugs on offer this time round.

The dangerous floaters for me are Kolkata. They spent a ridiculous amount of money to make one acquisition, Mortaza, who may not even make their starting XI. But they have Brendon McCullum for the duration; Chris Gayle, who missed the last edition, for the first half; and the genius of Ajantha Mendis, who wasn’t unveiled at all the last time. Between Mendis, Gayle and Murali Kartik, they have the most versatile and varied spin attack in the competition. And their middle order could be much more stable this time round if Cheteshwar Pujara is given a proper run.

That leaves Deccan and Bangalore. Deccan turned in a bizarrely poor show at the auction. Given how weak they were last year, I really thought they would attempt to rectify the situation with some clever choices. Their seam attack is particularly weak, led as it is by R.P. Singh, whose inconsistency over the past year hardly inspires confidence. Considering that, I am surprised that Fidel Edwards has been selected as their acquisition. He can get wickets, but what Deccan really needs is someone they can rely on. Considering this, it boggles my mind that Stuart Clark was passed up. He was one of the three bowlers of the tournament in the T20 World Cup (along with R.P. and Umar Gul), and a team like Deccan, more than any other, could really have done with his services. He also has an excellent rapport with Gilchrist, which makes his non-inclusion even more baffling. So Deccan now depends on a captain who is retired from competitive cricket; Edwards, who is inconsistent; and the erratic and troubled genius of Andrew Symonds. Looks like what they can most legitimately aspire to is to avoid the wooden spoon again. If I were them, I would have at least gone for Bangladesh’s Shakib al Hasan – a foreign quartet of Gilchrist, Symonds, Hasan and Clark would have looked far better than anything Deccan will be able to put on the field this year. I would at least sign on the talented young UP all-rounder Bhuvaneshwar Kumar, who was most impressive with bat and ball in the Ranji Trophy this year, and who is someone who could have an impact in this format.

But even Deccan’s idiocy pales compared to Bangalore’s. Sure, the KP signing will give them some strength, and a lot of attention. But they had a depleted bowling attack last year, and giving Zak away is hardly going to help that. Nathan Bracken, if fit, might make up for that. (I would also consider drafting in Vidharba’s young Umesh Yadav. He is quick – very quick – and had Dravid in all sorts of trouble in the Duleep Trophy. He will enjoy bowling at the Chinnaswamy, which is amongst the more pace-friendly of the IPL venues, and will be far more threatening than the likes of Vinay Kumar or B. Akhil). But there is no spin worth its name, especially if Kumble decides against playing this year.

What I cannot stomach, however, is the public speculation about Dravid’s continuation as captain. True, Dravid isn’t a great captain, and certainly didn’t inspire his charges last year. And if KP was available for the duration of the tournament, it would be intriguing to hand over the reins to him and see what happens. But for three weeks? And then to be replaced by Mark Boucher? Boucher was one of the colossal flops for Bangalore last year. Dravid, on the other hand (as people like to forget), made nearly 400 runs in that tournament, making him virtually the only Bangalore player to have performed with any level of credibility.

What is really specious is the argument given by Vijay Mallya. Apparently, since Shane Warne was spurned as Australia captain, he came in to lead Rajasthan with a point to prove – hence, Mallya’s thinking (if what passes through that brain can be called thought) is that KP, spurned by England, will come to Bangalore bristling with leadership points to prove.

What this conveniently misses out is that Warne only took over the team on the condition that he had total control over it from the beginning. He wasn’t just a spurned captain – he was also coach, manager, confidant, in charge of appointing his own assistants and with a group of young enthusiastic charges under his care. It was also his only assignment – he wasn’t thinking of an impending Ashes assignment six weeks away. And he didn’t have as astronomical price tag that he had to justify every time he took the field. KP, on the other hand, will have to negotiate Ray Jennings as coach, who is such a hard-ass that even the South Africans rebelled against him and he had to be replaced by Mickey Arthur. And will have to negotiate the publicly idiotic blather of Mallya, who will expect instant results and show no patience with anything resembling process. Far from having a group of enthusiastic young charges that he gets to mold from the beginning, he will be confronted by a team of big egos who have gotten into the losing habit, trying to accept someone who is coming in from the outside to put in a three week cameo experience as leader. He will have the Ashes on his mind, and will probably be dealing with media speculation about whether he is worth his price, whether his true commitments are to England or to his IPL contract, and so on. And KP’s results while captaining England have been distinctly mediocre.

The point here is not whether KP is a better captain or Dravid. The point here is that good teams are built, and there are processes put in place. The idea that you can pull a captain out of a hat and he will magically transform the team’s fortunes, while all the while you are speculating on strategies and successes and failures in the media, goes against not just cricketing sense, but against any sense of successful organization or institution building. The pick-a-captain-and-hope-until-his-first-failure approach is what has gotten Pakistan cricket into the mess it is in. The public media speculation is what made Greg Chappell such a disastrous coach for his players, who could no longer continue to trust him. Mallya beautifully combines both these failed formulae. Indeed, the three most impressive teams in the first edition – Rajasthan, Chennai and Delhi – were three teams whose owners and management let their cricketers make the headlines.

There may be odd individual performances that helps Bangalore avoid the wooden spoon, or perhaps even lift them up from 7th to 6th. But in the long term, something can only come of this franchise when Mallya tires of it and sells it to someone who is actually interested in developing a cricket team rather than playing with his latest toy.

When that happens, I have an idea. The Pakistanis should appoint Mallya to head the PCB. The current administrators of Pakistan cricket have worked diligently over the past decade to turn their team from a bunch of world-beaters to a bunch of also-rans. But even the Ijaz Butts of the world will meet their match in Mallya. By the time he’s done with them, Pakistan will be cannon-fodder for Bangladesh.

So, my extremely premature IPL predictions:

Winners: Chennai or Delhi
Finals: Chennai v. Delhi
Semi-finalists: Mumbai and Rajasthan / Kolkata
5th: Kolkata / Rajasthan
6th: Punjab
Wooden spoon: Deccan / Bangalore

Player of the series: Albie Morkel
Batsman of the series: Gautam Gambhir / Virendra Sehwag / David Warner
Bowler of the series: Daniel Vettori / Ajantha Mendis

And a p.s: 51!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 51!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! How sweet is that?!?!?!