IPL 2009 predictions

It is IPL time, and I am ashamed to say that I am looking forward to it. This blog post contains my analysis of each of the teams, and I then stick my neck out to make predictions so that I can look silly afterwards. Here goes …

RAJASTHAN ROYALS

General thoughts

The Royals, of course, are the team to look out for after their sensational win last year. Their performance, in many ways, made the IPL so worthwhile – it was one of those fairy tales that sports throws up every once in a while, making it worth watching. This time, however, they will be in the unenviable position of defending a reputation, with a bunch of still relatively inexperienced players, many of whom would not have encountered South African conditions before. Hence, doing a repeat is going to be hard. But after their performance last year, only a fool would write off Shane Warne and co. One thing they have going for them is that they have already gelled as a team, which is still not the case with a number of other franchises.

Strengths

The fact that they are already gelled as a team will help them. But their biggest strength, as was the case last year, has to be Shane Warne, the bowler, the captain, the all-round inspiration and provocateur. His success will be the living proof of the idiocy of John Buchanan’s multiple captain theory, and I think that knowing that alone will spur him to great heights.

Weaknesses

The inexperience of many in South Africa aside, I think their major weakness this time will be their bowling. Last time, having Shane Watson play the role of full-fledged all-rounder really provided depth to their bowling, and Sohail Tanvir was marvelous. This time, Watson will only be available as a batsman for two weeks, and then he will leave to play for Australia. They will miss his hit-the-deck, seam-up bowling, and they will miss his talismanic presence through the second half of the tournament. He will be hard to replace by a single player, and a number of players will have to step up to fill his shoes. Tanvir will also be tough to replace. Of his three possible replacements, Shaun Tait is still coming back to big-time cricket; Morne Morkel has shown himself to be notoriously temperamental; and Tyron Henderson, who is probably the safest bet of the three in the T20 format, is new to IPL, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.

Their best team

If Graeme Smith is fully fit, then at least as long as Watson is around, Rajasthan’s batting line-up should be much the same last year. Mohammad Kaif was the one disappointment then, so he will be eager to come good this time round. Warne, Munaf and Sid Trivedi are certainties with the ball, and I think the one question mark would concern Tanvir’s replacement – my choice would be Henderson. The one unequivocal failure for Rajasthan last year was their unimpressive keeper, Mahesh Rawat. This time, they have drafted in the Madhya Pradesh wicket-keeper, Naman Ojha, who is amongst the probables for the T20 World Cup. Ojha is a pretty useful bat, who even opens for MP (though he is likely to bat much lower in this line-up), and this could be his chance to shine and stake some higher claims.

Likely XI:

Graeme Smith
Swapnil Asnodkar
Yusuf Pathan
Shane Watson
Mohammad Kaif
Ravindra Jadeja
Tyron Henderson
Naman Ojha (W)
Shane Warne ©
Munaf Patel
Siddharth Trivedi

X-factor / player to watch out for

Last year, Ravindra Jadeja came into the national reckoning on the back of a strong IPL performance. Unlike some of the others who had a good IPL, Jadeja backed it up with a sensational domestic season, to force himself briefly into the Indian one-day line-up. Crucially, that domestic performance included not just lots of runs, but Jadeja being the highest wicket-taker in the Ranji Trophy. Last year, Warne didn’t bowl Jadeja at all in the IPL. This time, especially in the absence of Watson’s services, Jadeja’s left-arm spin could be as crucial as his batting. Quality all-rounders are few and far between in Indian cricket, so watching Jadeja’s progress will be exciting. Jadeja is competing with his Rajasthan teammate Yusuf Pathan for the all-rounder’s spot in the Indian one-day XI, and a strong performance from him here (especially with the ball) could make things interesting. Yusuf is yet to establish himself with any measure of consistency in the Indian line-up, and Jadeja is certainly the better bowler. Watch out for a high-stakes tussle between the two Royals teammates in this tournament.

Conclusion / Prediction

Rajasthan’s batting is definitely their stronger suit than their bowling, though if Jadeja starts producing with the ball then watch out. I think they will definitely make the semi-finals, and probably make the finals. But lifting the trophy a second time will be a tall order, since especially in crunch games in South Africa, teams with stronger bowling attacks are likely to have the advantage.

CHENNAI SUPER KINGS

General thoughts

Chennai were nearly as impressive as Rajasthan the last time around. They arguably had the best batting line-up in the league, though their bowling was occasionally weak. This time their bowling is strengthened hugely, at least for the first part of the tournament, by the drafting of Andrew Flintoff. If he is fit, then of course he can always be an impact player in any form of the game, though of late he has turned more into a strike bowler who can bat rather than a genuine all-rounder. A new ball attack of Flintoff and Makhaya Ntini will be as good as any there is in the league.

Strengths

There are many. The key for them, as for Rajasthan, is the captain. Warne is probably a better strategist, but Dhoni is every bit as talismanic a presence, and is one of the best middle-order batsmen in the world in this format. Generally, their middle order has a very strong look to it – Raina, Dhoni and Badrinath are all India players or aspirants, and they have two quality all-rounders in Flintoff and Albie Morkel. Their bowling also looks much better than last time – not just because of Flintoff, but because Ntini will enjoy conditions in South Africa more than he did in India. Indeed, I think Ntini could be the bowler of the tournament. He has been overshadowed by Dale Steyn for South Africa, while always being a threat himself, and the IPL could be his chance to remind people just what a potent bowler he can be. He has always been a better bowler in South Africa than abroad, and the shift of the tournament to SA will help him more than most.

Weaknesses

The biggest weakness for Chennai is probably their top order, which doesn’t provide as much of a cushion to the strong middle order as it might. Matthew Hayden hasn’t played much competitive cricket for a while, and he looked well past his best the last time that he did. Last year, Parthiv Patel looked quite out of his league as a T20 opener, and it is likely that Murali Vijay will get a look in as Hayden’s opening partner. Vijay is a good bat, and this is a great opportunity for him to stake some claims with selectors; but frankly, he looks more suited to longer versions of the game, and is relatively inexperienced in this format. I also wonder about Manpreet Gony. He was the surprise package for Chennai last time, but has done next to nothing since. Maybe he is someone who is ideally suited for T20; or maybe last year was just a one-off. The openers though are the biggest concern, given the disproportionate influence a strong start can have in this form of the game.

Their best team

Much of the team selects itself. Certainly 3-7 are straightforward choices, and Ntini, Gony and Balaji will join Flintoff and Morkel to provide fast bowling options. The tricky choice is going to concern the fourth foreign player, which will have to be a toss-up between Hayden and Muthiah Muralitharan. Murali is obviously more the form player. But he was a huge disappointment last year, and if Hayden is dropped, it isn’t clear who will open with Vijay. Given his experience, even an out-of-form Hayden may be worth a punt at the top, at least initially. In that case, the spin bowling spot will go to the Tamilnadu off-spinner Ravichandran Ashwin. Ashwin was the highest wicket-taker in the Challenger Trophy, which was enough to push him into the probables list for the T20 World Cup. This will be a great opportunity for him to perform at a higher stage and grab some more attention.

Likely XI:

Matthew Hayden
Murali Vijay
Suresh Raina
Albie Morkel
Mahendra Dhoni © (W)
Subramaniam Badrinath
Andrew Flintoff
Ravichandran Ashwin
Manpreet Gony
Laxmipaty Balaji
Makhaya Ntini

X-factor / player to watch out for

Albie Morkel. Flintoff is more famous, but has done little of note with the bat of late, and has constant fitness concerns. Morkel, though, is genuinely dangerous with bat and ball; will be available for the whole tournament; and will be playing on home ground. He has an opportunity to be the Shane Watson of this year’s tournament.

Conclusion / prediction

I think there is little to separate Chennai and Rajasthan, though this time their roles are reversed from last year – Chennai probably has the better bowling, Rajasthan (because of their top order) arguably has fewer concerns with their batting. I see Chennai as certain semi-finalists, though my gut feeling is that is as far as they will get. But they are good enough to reach the finals. I don’t see them winning, but they are certainly once again strong contenders. Flintoff’s fitness, and Ntini’s effectiveness, could have a major bearing on how they fare.

KING’S XI PUNJAB

General thoughts

Punjab was one of the most exciting teams to watch last year. They are full of flair players, and two of them – Sreesanth and Irfan Pathan – really stood up to be counted (which is not always the case when they play for India). In addition, they had Shaun Marsh emerge as the find of the tournament. But this year, I think Punjab has more troubles than most. Brett Lee’s form has gone completely missing since his divorce last summer (and in any case, he will only be available for the first two weeks); Sreesanth is missing the tournament with injury; Marsh is returning from a long lay-off from injury; Jayawardene and Sangakkara will be playing cricket for the first time since being shot at, and neither of them were in much form before that. Punjab doesn’t have a solid, dependable player with either bat or ball – it is a team full of flair players, all of whom are form players. And it is not clear that many of them are in much form.

Strengths

Not that many, to be honest, and they are really going to need something special from Yuvraj Singh to stand a chance of even making the semis. Yuvi was a disappointment last year; but, his uncertain Test technique notwithstanding, he has been in tremendous form in the shorter versions of the game of late. Punjab really needs Yuvi to lead their batting line-up. Their only hope is to post big scores and then hope for the best from their bowlers, and Yuvi is the most likely person to help them post those scores. Yuvi didn’t look all that impressive as captain last year; but strategies and tactics aside, Punjab need him to lead by example this time.

Weaknesses

Where to start? Their strong players are doubtful in terms of form or fitness, Yuvraj excepted. But the biggest worry has to be their seam attack. In the absence of Sreesanth, that is an attack of Lee, Irfan Pathan and VRV Singh. Lee and VRV are both coming off injury, and neither was in much form before they were injured. This means that the seam attack effectively depends upon Irfan – which, given his own notorious temperament, is a frightening thought. The responsibility might bring out the best in him, and certainly he was very good last year; but an attack that depends on him to lead it is not an attack that one can expect great things from.

Their best team

Marsh, Mahela, Sanga and Lee will be the foreign players; Yuvraj is a certainty; and Lee, Irfan and VRV are likely to constitute their seam attack. They just don’t have very many other seamers to call upon, so if they had any sense they would play both their spinners, Piyush Chawla and Ramesh Powar. This still leaves two batting spots. Last year, a number of people were tried for those spots – Karan Goel, Uday Kaul, Sunny Sohal – and all of them looked completely out of their depth. I think the best bets there might be Tanmay Srivastava, who is a very consistent performer for UP and who could be a sheet anchor that others bat around; and the talented young Goan all-rounder Ryan Ninan. Playing for one of the weaker teams in India, Ninan has not managed to catch the attention purely with statistics; but those who have seen him speak highly of his abilities. He is primarily a batsman with talent and flair, but his off-spin bowling could prove a useful addition to a weak attack.

Likely XI:

Shaun Marsh
Tanmay Srivastava
Yuvraj Singh ©
Kumar Sangakkara (W)
Mahela Jayawardene
Ryan Ninan
Irfan Pathan
Ramesh Powar
Piyush Chawla
Brett Lee
VRV Singh

X-factor / player to look out for

Ramesh Powar. Part of this is bias – portly Powar is one of my favorite cricketers. I love his attitude, I love the natural flight and loop with which he bowls, and I think he has been one of the most badly treated cricketers in Indian cricket of late. But bias apart, I think he could be a real factor. One thing that the last IPL showed us was the value of good spin bowling in this format, because taking wickets has such a large impact in T20, and wicket-taking spinners are worth their weight in gold. Powar is such a spinner; he showed through his fine performance in the one-day series in England that he can bowl most effectively abroad, even in conditions that don’t help spinners much (of course, he was rewarded for that performance by being dropped); and he is one of the few players in this Punjab line-up who has actually been in form of late. Yuvraj needs to ensure that Powar is part of the starting line-up, and regularly; he could be one of the few silver linings in the Punjab cloud.

Conclusions / predictions

I don’t see any chance of Punjab making the semis this year, and the only question of interest should be whether they can avoid the wooden spoon. There are some teams that have as many problems as Punjab, so it is quite possible that they won’t end up at the bottom. Beyond that, I can’t imagine that much good will come of this tournament for them.

DELHI DAREDEVILS

General thoughts

Delhi was an odd mix last year. When they were good, they were very good. And they were good when their fearsome top order fired, which was most of the time. But the top order was supported poorly by a flimsy middle order, and that ultimately let them down. They also had poor luck with the weather. At the end of the day, they scraped into the semis largely because Mumbai self-destructed in a crucial game; so it has to be said that, on the whole, Delhi underperformed in spite of some moments of sheer brilliance. This time, though, I think they will be a team to watch out for. They have traded the dependable Shikhar Dhawan, but have drafted in the exciting Aussie David Warner, so their top order, if anything, is even stronger this time round than last. And Daniel Vettori, who is one of the best bowlers in the world in this format, will be available for the whole tournament. Expect great things from this team.

Strengths

Sehwag and Gambhir formed the most fearsome opening combination in the tournament last year, and since then, they have continued to be destructive for India in every form of the game. A strong start counts for a huge amount in T20, so in a sense, a batting order that is strong at the top and weak in the middle (like Delhi’s) makes for a better line-up than one that is weak at the top and strong in the middle (like Chennai’s). Viru may have disappointed in the Tests in New Zealand, but his form in the one-dayers was as destructive as ever. And Gambhir is playing the cricket of his lifetime. He was already a star in the T20 World Cup in South Africa, so he will enjoy the conditions and continue to be one of the key batsmen in the tournament. I think Vettori will be another key player for them. He loves bowling in this format, and was a star in the T20 World Cup in South Africa. His lower-order batting skills will also be crucial.

Weaknesses

The middle order remains a bit of a question mark. Neither Dinesh Karthik nor Manoj Tiwary did very much for them last year, and that’s a problem at the fag end of an innings, especially in a tight chase. Since then, DK has been in fine domestic form, but Tiwary has done little of note even in the Ranji Trophy. There was speculation that he would be traded to Kolkata, and frankly, Delhi would have done better to retain Dhawan and get rid of Tiwary. Like last year, it’s the middle order that Delhi would be worried about this year, though if DK carries his domestic form into this tournament then some of that worry will be assuaged.

Their best team

Sehwag, Gambhir and Warner will be at the top, though if I was the team management I would send Warner out to open with Viru. This way, Gambhir can play at 3, which will help impart some stability to the middle order and mid-innings. The no. 4 spot is a toss-up between A.B. de Villiers and Tillakaratne Dilshan. Both disappointed last year, but both have been in terrific form for their countries since. In South African conditions, AB should get the nod first. Vettori and Mishra will form the spin duo, while McGrath will lead the seam attack. V. Yo Mahesh was most impressive last year, and should partner him. The third seamer will be a toss-up. The leading candidates would be the two left-armers, Ashish Nehra and Pradeep Sangwan, with Nehra having the advantage of having played in South Africa. However, I would take a punt on young Umesh Yadav, on whom more below.

Likely XI:

David Warner
Virendra Sehwag ©
Gautam Gambhir
A.B. de Villiers
Dinesh Karthik (W)
Manoj Tiwary
Daniel Vettori
Amit Mishra
V. Yo Mahesh
Glenn McGrath
Umesh Yadav

X-factor / playing to watch out for

I would like to see what Umesh Yadav is capable of. That was a very clever pick by Delhi. Only 19, he has had a searing first year of domestic cricket for Vidharba. He is quick, very quick, and had Rahul Dravid hopping before cleaning him up in a Duleep Trophy game. The other tear-away quicks that India has brought in of late haven’t lived up to their billing – VRV Singh has faded away completely, while Munaf Patel has settled into being a line-and-length medium pacer in the mold of Angus Fraser. Delhi’s other seamers are all military medium pace, so Yadav will give them something different. He will also enjoy bowling in South African conditions. Regardless of the role he plays for Delhi, he will benefit greatly from his stint with the team, especially since Delhi’s bowling coaches are T.A. Sekhar and Dennis Lillee (not to mention the benefits of playing alongside McGrath). Watch this young lad’s progress – it could have a bearing on Indian cricket in years to come.

Conclusions / prediction

In terms of quality, there is little to separate Delhi, Chennai and Rajasthan, though the Royals probably have the weakest bowling attack of the three. However, I am going to stick my neck out and say that Delhi has the best chance of winning of the three. This is because top order batting and wicket-taking spin bowling have disproportionate effects in T20 cricket. Delhi’s top 3 are scary good, and they have the best spinner in the world in this format in the ranks, supported by another spinner who showed last year that he too could be a match-winner. They also have a terrific fielding outfit, with de Villiers alone worth 10 runs a game in the field. And finally, unlike with Rajasthan and Chennai, their key foreign players will be available for the duration of the tournament. I think these guys have what it takes to go all the way.

MUMBAI INDIANS

General thoughts

Mumbai was a disappointment last year. They were the most expensive franchise, and the most star-studded, but spent the early part of the tournament worried about Tendulkar’s injury and Harbhajan Singh’s shenanigans. And then, when they recovered to have a shot at the semis, they self-destructed in a crucial game. This year they have made a big acquisition in J.P. Duminy, and look again like a very well balanced side. Only a fool will write them off completely, so I won’t do so. And yet; and yet …

Strengths

They have many. Two of their weak links from last year, Sachin and Bhajji, are now playing very well; they have acquired Zaheer Khan from Bangalore; and they have two quality all-rounders in J.P. Duminy and Dwayne Bravo, both of whom will be available for the whole tournament. They have class at the top of the order, quality and versatility in the middle, and a strong bowling attack. They need to be taken very seriously.

Weaknesses

I think Shaun Pollock will be hard to replace. He was terrific with the ball last year, and his lower order batting has always been vital in any form of the game. Zak replaces him as a bowler, and Duminy comes in as a batting all-rounder, but given that Mumbai has traded Ashish Nehra to Delhi, I think they are still one quality seamer short. Lasith Malinga and Dilhara Fernando will be fighting to partner Zak with the new ball, but the former is coming off a long injury, while the latter is notoriously unreliable. Zak himself can occasionally go for a few, even when bowling well, so against a team that has a strong top order, like Delhi, they could struggle.

Their best team

Jayuasuriya and Sachin will obviously open, and Duminy, Bravo and Abhisekh Nayar will form a strong trio of all-rounders at 4, 5 and 6. Yogesh Takawale was most impressive behind the stumps last year, and should retain the keeper’s spot. Zak, Bhajji and Dhawal Kulkarni are certainties with the ball, and, if fit, Malinga would be a better bet than Fernando as Zak’s new ball partner. So the only question really concerns Robin Uthappa’s replacement at 3. They have the option of playing Shikhar Dhawan, who was so good for Delhi last year, but who has done little of note since. I would personally prefer Ajinkya Rahane, an extremely talented opening batsman who has been in phenomenal form on the domestic circuit. Rahane is amongst the probables for the T20 World Cup, and on form, makes a more compelling case than Dhawan.

Likely XI:

Sanath Jayasuriya
Sachin Tendulkar ©
Ajinka Rahane
J.P. Duminy
Dwayne Bravo
Abhisekh Nayar
Yogesh Takawale (W)
Harbhajan Singh
Zaheer Khan
Lasith Malinga
Dhawal Kulkarni

X-factor / player to watch out for

Obviously, Duminy. He has been one of the most exciting players in world cricket over the past few months, and is one of those players who have the ability to make the sort of all-round impact than Shane Watson made last year. He was an expensive acquisition, so there will be pressure on him. It will be interesting to see how he adapts to this challenge.

Conclusions / predictions

There is so much that is good about this side, and I certainly expect them to reach the semis. But somehow, I don’t see them going all the way, or even making the finals. Some of this is just gut feeling. Basically, their leadership trio of Sachin, Pollock (now the coach) and Jayasuriya are champions; but none of them have had that extra aggression, that aura, that oomph, to be successful captains. Each one of them, indeed, was quite mediocre when leading his respective country, even though each of them is such a thinking cricketer. In T20, having a captain who can do something extraordinary, who can think on his feet, who can make something special happen at the spur of the moment, is crucial in a crunch game. Warne and Dhoni have proven themselves to have that ability; I think, based on what I saw last year, that Viru potentially does as well, his poor captaincy in the Napier Test notwithstanding. I just don’t think Sachin has that, and I don’t think anyone in the Mumbai leadership team has it. They will play good, solid, professional cricket. But will they play inspired cricket? I have my doubts.

KOLKATA KNIGHT RIDERS

General thoughts

Last year, they were a talented outfit that didn’t quite get it together. This year, with Chris Gayle available for some of the tournament and Brendon McCullum available for all of it, I thought they would be dangerous floaters – until John Buchanan came up with his ludicrous multiple captains theory. Now, I feel that Kolkata will have enough off-field problems to field many inches of column space in the weeks to come. Lucky for Buchanan the tournament has been moved to South Africa – Calcutta would have been too hot for him to handle!

Strengths

Kolkata has some pretty talented players, though the two key ones are the ones we saw too little or nothing of last year, McCullum and Gayle. Gayle will only be available for two weeks, but he can be as dangerous as Sehwag at the top of the order, and his off-spin is more than useful. McCullum, I think, is simply remarkable. He is yet to show consistency as a Test batsman, but he has already, more than amply, demonstrated just how devastating he can be in the shorter formats. His availability for the duration of the tournament will be significant for Kolkata, and make their batting far more solid than it was last year.

Weaknesses

John Buchanan. He was hailed as a great coach for what he did with Australia – but the team was good enough that anything he did would probably have been met with success. Frankly, I think that the multiple captains idea is ridiculous. T20, perhaps more than any other format, hinges on critical moments in the game, and having one person who can lead, think on his feet, take charge, and take responsibility is crucial. This was evidenced last year, when the two teams with the best captains made the finals. But more than the merits or demerits of the experiment, the problem lies with the way Buchanan went about implementing it. Clearly, he did not take Ganguly properly into confidence, and to head into a tournament where the captain and coach aren’t thinking together, and don’t trust each other, is hardly an ideal situation – echoes of Greg Chappell all over again. The other captains / leaders / strategists / whatever they are called haven’t worked with Ganguly, or with each other; you would think that even if this hare-brained idea was to work, it could only work amongst people who have already played with each other extensively. If Buchanan thinks that Ganguly doesn’t merit an automatic place in the XI and should be replaced by another captain, then he should have just had the courage and honesty to insist upon that rather than play these shenanigans. I think Buchanan has ensured that whatever chance Kolkata had to ensure some upward mobility has now gone up in a puff of dust. If KKR wants to be a force to reckon with in the coming years, they need to be thinking of another coach down the line.

There are also problems in the line-up, and the biggest concerns the absence of a quality all-rounder. Gayle sort of fits the bill, but he’s around only for two weeks, and he’ll be the first to admit that he’s primarily a batsman who can turn his arm around. In T20 cricket, having all-rounders is very important. You can get away with it if, like Delhi, you have superlative specialists (though I personally think that the way he is batting, Vettori qualifies as an all-rounder for them). But Bengal’s excuse for an all-rounder is L.R. Shukla. Compare that to, say, Mumbai, who have Duminy, Bravo, Nayar and Jayasuriya, each of whom is capable of a quick 50 and 4 overs. I am amazed that Kolkata spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Mashrafe Mortaza, who may not even make their final XI, and completely ignored another Bangladeshi, Shakib al Hasan, who is the no. 1 ranked all-rounder in one-day cricket according to the ICC rankings. An indication again of the complete absence of thought and planning that seems to be going into this franchise.

Their best team

I would open with Gayle and Ganguly, only because I think McCullum (like Gambhir for Delhi) is better played in the middle order, where his versatility will be handy. David Hussey and the impressive Wriddhiman Saha would be other middle-order batsmen. I would also give a chance to young Cheteshwar Pujara, who has been such a success in domestic cricket for Saurashtra. It will be interesting to see how he can adapt to this format, given that he primarily a technical player. But KKR had a flimsy batting line-up the last time around, and Pujara could provide some crucial solidity. Shukla will be their “all-rounder”, such as he is, and Ishant Sharma and Ashok Dinda will lead their attack. I would play both their international spinners, Ajantha Mendis and Murali Kartik, since I think Mendis is much more likely to make a mark than Mortaza.

Likely XI:

Chris Gayle (C?)
Sourav Ganguly (C?)
Cheteshwar Pujara
Brendon McCullum (C?)
David Hussey (C?)
Wriddhiman Saha (W)
L.R. Shukla (C?)
Murali Kartik
Ishant Sharma
Ajantha Mendis
Ashok Dinda

X-factor / player to look out for

Ajantha Mendis. Watching this genius bowl was one of the highlights of 2008 for me, and in a format where wickets really count, Mendis could be a real factor for KKR. It is true that the Indians handled him better in January than they did last summer; but many of the batsmen he will bowl to would not have faced him before, and I think he will enjoy considerable success in the tournament. It will certainly be good for the game if spinners like Mendis and Powar thrive, as I expect them to.

Conclusions / predictions

I actually think Kolkata is in a better position than last year, because they can draw more extensively on Gayle (who missed the tournament entirely last year), McCullum (who could only play the first couple of games) and Mendis (who was part of the outfit, but for some reason didn’t get a game). But they failed to gel as a team last year, and by all indications they will fail even more spectacularly to do so this year. Their “main” captain, Ganguly, is probably someone who wouldn’t be entirely sure of his own place in the XI had he not been such an icon. They don’t have a quality all-rounder, and their seam attack is led by one person (Ishant) who was a huge disappointment last year, and who perhaps hasn’t entirely adjusted to the T20 format; and another (Dinda) who has been in poor form of late in domestic cricket. Their bowling success depends hugely on how much Mendis can deliver, but I think their batting is stronger than it was last year. Still, I don’t see them making the semis.

BANGALORE ROYAL CHALLENGERS

General thoughts

Bangalore was the Horror of 2008. Deccan was the worse team, but Bangalore’s misery was more public and more ridiculous. I didn’t think very highly of Vijay Mallya’s decision to replace Dravid with Pietersen as captain, but nonetheless I think Bangalore is better positioned this year than last. Some of that has to do with the fact that they have so many South Africans in their ranks, and so probably have more “home advantage” than any other team. But even more, it has to do with their acquisition of Jesse Ryder, who I think will prove a far more valuable player than KP (who will only play for the first two weeks anyway). I think Bangalore, more than Kolkata, is likely to be the dangerous floater of the tournament.

Strengths

Ryder. The India series in New Zealand was the first time I got to see him, and I have to say I am so impressed. What is most impressive is that his technique is impeccable – he plays absolutely straight, and has so much time to play his shots. One of Bangalore’s major weaknesses last year was their opening batting, and Ryder and Robin Uthappa (whom they have acquired from Mumbai) look a far better bet than anything they managed to put together last time. Another major weakness was fielding, as Bangalore had the worst fielding unit in the league; Ryder’s electric fielding abilities will boost that department too. Add his useful medium-pace, and he is in the running for being Watson-of-the-year.

I think Bangalore will also see an improved Dale Steyn. Steyn was a disaster last year, as he clearly thought he was getting a very well-paid holiday and put in no effort. I think he will be a different proposition in South African conditions, and I don’t think he’ll be allowed to get away with such a slipshod attitude by the new coach Ray Jennings.

Weaknesses

Two of Bangalore’s key middle-order batsmen, KP and Dravid, will leave after two weeks (the latter for the birth of his child). KP could be well replaced in the 11 by Ross Taylor, but I think the gap left by Dravid’s departure will be hard to fill. (In the very public and constant tirade that Mallya kept up against Dravid last year, it is easy to forget that, while officially “out of form” and “unsuited to the format”, Dravid was Bangalore’s top run-getter by some distance). They will also have a captaincy gap. Jacques Kallis will take over from KP; but Kallis is no more obviously suited to this format than Sourav Ganguly, and has very little captaincy experience. So even if they get off to a good start, sustaining it without Dravid and KP will take some work. Their bowling is also weaker than last year, since they have traded Zaheer Khan to Mumbai. A better performance from Steyn could make up somewhat for the deficit, but someone else needs to bowl Zak’s 4 overs, and it’s not clear that gap can be easily filled.

Their best team

The top 4 select themselves, and Kallis’s all-round abilities should see him take the no. 5 spot even though he was so disappointing last year. Virat Kohli will take the last middle order spot. If Ryder, KP, Kallis and Steyn play as the foreigners, there will be no place for Mark Boucher. While Sreevats Goswami would be the obvious keeper in his absence, I would actually ask Uthappa to don the gloves so that Bangalore can play the extra bowler – their bowling is weak enough to require that. Steyn and Praveen Kumar will take the new ball, while Kumble is the spinner. Their back-up seam attack will be constituted by Pankaj Singh, who was acquired from Rajasthan; and UP’s young all-rounder Bhuvneshwar Kumar, about who see more below.

Likely XI:

Jesse Ryder
Robin Uthappa (W)
Rahul Dravid
Kevin Pietersen ©
Jacques Kallis
Virat Kohli
Bhuvneshwar Kumar
Anil Kumble
Praveen Kumar
Dale Steyn
Pankaj Singh

X-factor / player to look out for

Bhuvneshwar Kumar. He, Umesh Yadav and Ravindra Jadeja are the three young Indians to pay attention to in this tournament. BK is only 18, but had a terrific season as an all-rounder for UP, getting crucial wickets at first-change and playing key, hard-hitting innings down the order. Acquiring him was a smart move, and the IPL will be a great learning experience for him. He could be someone to look out for in Indian colors in years to come.

Conclusions / predictions

I still think reaching the semi-finals will be a tall order for Bangalore, especially once KP and Dravid depart. But I think they will take some steps in the right direction this year, which is more than can be said for Kolkata. Especially in the early stages of the tournament, they could cause some upsets, so opposing teams will do well not to take them too lightly.

DECCAN CHARGERS

General thoughts

Last, and least, the Deccan Chargers. Last year, they were the favorites going into the tournament, and turned out to be woeful. In the interim, they have replaced V.V.S. Laxman with Adam Gilchrist as captain, even though Gilchrist captained half the games last year and had exactly the same record as Laxman; have replaced Robin Singh as coach with Darren Lehmann, though Lehmann has few coaching credentials; and appointed and possibly sacked their CEO, except nobody was sure whether he was actually sacked or not at the time of sacking. Also in the interim, Gilchrist has played no first class cricket; Andrew Symonds has spectacularly imploded; and Herschelle Gibbs continues to classify as wasted talent. They did a terrible job at the auction, failing to pick up any really significant new signings; and haven’t even done much of a job of drafting in fresh young Indian talent, as some of the other franchises have done. How will they do any better than last year? I don’t know, you tell me.

Strengths

I am hard pressed to find any, though this represents a terrific opportunity for Rohit Sharma. He was one of the silver linings last year, and I think there will be enormous responsibility on him to salvage something for his team this year. This might be the challenge that he needs to turn his enormous talent into something more consistently productive, and if that happens, then at least some good will come of Deccan’s debacle for Indian cricket.

Weaknesses

Where to start? The entire time looks like a weakness to me. Fidel Edwards could be an exciting new signing with the ball, but he can be expensive, and is only available for two weeks. Otherwise, the bowling attack is led by R.P. Singh, who has struggled with rhythm and fitness for the past year, so that is as big a gamble as having an attack led by Irfan Pathan. The batting, I think, revolves entirely around Rohit.

Their best team

Gilchrist, Gibbs, Symonds and Edwards are the best foreign players, since their other options are all Sri Lankans who don’t quite cut it – Chamara Silva (notorious underperformer), Nuwan Zoysa (ditto) and Chaminda Vaas (past his best, though will probably come in when Edwards leaves). None of those three are good enough to make it into the Sri Lankan one-day team at present. Laxman has to play – there aren’t too many other options, and I thought he did a pretty good job before his injury last year – but I would have the talented Ravi Teja open with Gilchrist. Venugopal Rao, who was surprisingly spunky and effective last year, is the other batsman, while Pragyan Ojha and Hyderabad’s talented fast bowler Shoaib Ahmed complete the bowling attack.

Likely XI:

Adam Gilchrist © (W)
Ravi Teja
V.V.S. Laxman
Herschelle Gibbs
Andrew Symonds
Rohit Sharma
Y. Venugopal Rao
Pragyan Ojha
R.P. Singh
Fidel Edwards
Shoaib Ahmed

X-factor / player to watch out for

Rohit Sharma, because not only will his performance determine whether Deccan can avoid the wooden spoon; it will also determine his chances of making the playing XI for the T20 World Cup, and his immediate future prospects with the Indian one-day team. So there is a lot riding on this tournament for him. And Rohit finding his feet can only be good news for Indian cricket.

Conclusions / predictions

The only item of interest here will be the gripping contest for the wooden spoon between Deccan and Punjab (with Kolkata capable of sneaking a surprise in that department). I think Deccan is better qualified to finish last, because at least Punjab tasted success last year, so they will have some self-belief. This team has just not gelled together at any level, and I don’t see it happening now.

STICKING MY NECK OUT

So, sticking my neck out, these are my predictions:

Champions: Delhi Daredevils
Runners-up: Rajasthan Royals
Semi-finalists: Chennai Super Kings; Mumbai Indians
5th: Bangalore Royal Challengers
6th: Kolkata Knight Riders
7th: King’s XI Punjab
8th: Deccan Chargers

Player of the tournament: Daniel Vettori
Most runs: Gautam Gambhir [other possibility: Virendra Sehwag]
Most wickets: Makhaya Ntini [other possibilities: Daniel Vettori; Shane Warne]