IPL 2009 predictions

It is IPL time, and I am ashamed to say that I am looking forward to it. This blog post contains my analysis of each of the teams, and I then stick my neck out to make predictions so that I can look silly afterwards. Here goes …

RAJASTHAN ROYALS

General thoughts

The Royals, of course, are the team to look out for after their sensational win last year. Their performance, in many ways, made the IPL so worthwhile – it was one of those fairy tales that sports throws up every once in a while, making it worth watching. This time, however, they will be in the unenviable position of defending a reputation, with a bunch of still relatively inexperienced players, many of whom would not have encountered South African conditions before. Hence, doing a repeat is going to be hard. But after their performance last year, only a fool would write off Shane Warne and co. One thing they have going for them is that they have already gelled as a team, which is still not the case with a number of other franchises.

Strengths

The fact that they are already gelled as a team will help them. But their biggest strength, as was the case last year, has to be Shane Warne, the bowler, the captain, the all-round inspiration and provocateur. His success will be the living proof of the idiocy of John Buchanan’s multiple captain theory, and I think that knowing that alone will spur him to great heights.

Weaknesses

The inexperience of many in South Africa aside, I think their major weakness this time will be their bowling. Last time, having Shane Watson play the role of full-fledged all-rounder really provided depth to their bowling, and Sohail Tanvir was marvelous. This time, Watson will only be available as a batsman for two weeks, and then he will leave to play for Australia. They will miss his hit-the-deck, seam-up bowling, and they will miss his talismanic presence through the second half of the tournament. He will be hard to replace by a single player, and a number of players will have to step up to fill his shoes. Tanvir will also be tough to replace. Of his three possible replacements, Shaun Tait is still coming back to big-time cricket; Morne Morkel has shown himself to be notoriously temperamental; and Tyron Henderson, who is probably the safest bet of the three in the T20 format, is new to IPL, so it will be interesting to see how he performs.

Their best team

If Graeme Smith is fully fit, then at least as long as Watson is around, Rajasthan’s batting line-up should be much the same last year. Mohammad Kaif was the one disappointment then, so he will be eager to come good this time round. Warne, Munaf and Sid Trivedi are certainties with the ball, and I think the one question mark would concern Tanvir’s replacement – my choice would be Henderson. The one unequivocal failure for Rajasthan last year was their unimpressive keeper, Mahesh Rawat. This time, they have drafted in the Madhya Pradesh wicket-keeper, Naman Ojha, who is amongst the probables for the T20 World Cup. Ojha is a pretty useful bat, who even opens for MP (though he is likely to bat much lower in this line-up), and this could be his chance to shine and stake some higher claims.

Likely XI:

Graeme Smith
Swapnil Asnodkar
Yusuf Pathan
Shane Watson
Mohammad Kaif
Ravindra Jadeja
Tyron Henderson
Naman Ojha (W)
Shane Warne ©
Munaf Patel
Siddharth Trivedi

X-factor / player to watch out for

Last year, Ravindra Jadeja came into the national reckoning on the back of a strong IPL performance. Unlike some of the others who had a good IPL, Jadeja backed it up with a sensational domestic season, to force himself briefly into the Indian one-day line-up. Crucially, that domestic performance included not just lots of runs, but Jadeja being the highest wicket-taker in the Ranji Trophy. Last year, Warne didn’t bowl Jadeja at all in the IPL. This time, especially in the absence of Watson’s services, Jadeja’s left-arm spin could be as crucial as his batting. Quality all-rounders are few and far between in Indian cricket, so watching Jadeja’s progress will be exciting. Jadeja is competing with his Rajasthan teammate Yusuf Pathan for the all-rounder’s spot in the Indian one-day XI, and a strong performance from him here (especially with the ball) could make things interesting. Yusuf is yet to establish himself with any measure of consistency in the Indian line-up, and Jadeja is certainly the better bowler. Watch out for a high-stakes tussle between the two Royals teammates in this tournament.

Conclusion / Prediction

Rajasthan’s batting is definitely their stronger suit than their bowling, though if Jadeja starts producing with the ball then watch out. I think they will definitely make the semi-finals, and probably make the finals. But lifting the trophy a second time will be a tall order, since especially in crunch games in South Africa, teams with stronger bowling attacks are likely to have the advantage.

CHENNAI SUPER KINGS

General thoughts

Chennai were nearly as impressive as Rajasthan the last time around. They arguably had the best batting line-up in the league, though their bowling was occasionally weak. This time their bowling is strengthened hugely, at least for the first part of the tournament, by the drafting of Andrew Flintoff. If he is fit, then of course he can always be an impact player in any form of the game, though of late he has turned more into a strike bowler who can bat rather than a genuine all-rounder. A new ball attack of Flintoff and Makhaya Ntini will be as good as any there is in the league.

Strengths

There are many. The key for them, as for Rajasthan, is the captain. Warne is probably a better strategist, but Dhoni is every bit as talismanic a presence, and is one of the best middle-order batsmen in the world in this format. Generally, their middle order has a very strong look to it – Raina, Dhoni and Badrinath are all India players or aspirants, and they have two quality all-rounders in Flintoff and Albie Morkel. Their bowling also looks much better than last time – not just because of Flintoff, but because Ntini will enjoy conditions in South Africa more than he did in India. Indeed, I think Ntini could be the bowler of the tournament. He has been overshadowed by Dale Steyn for South Africa, while always being a threat himself, and the IPL could be his chance to remind people just what a potent bowler he can be. He has always been a better bowler in South Africa than abroad, and the shift of the tournament to SA will help him more than most.

Weaknesses

The biggest weakness for Chennai is probably their top order, which doesn’t provide as much of a cushion to the strong middle order as it might. Matthew Hayden hasn’t played much competitive cricket for a while, and he looked well past his best the last time that he did. Last year, Parthiv Patel looked quite out of his league as a T20 opener, and it is likely that Murali Vijay will get a look in as Hayden’s opening partner. Vijay is a good bat, and this is a great opportunity for him to stake some claims with selectors; but frankly, he looks more suited to longer versions of the game, and is relatively inexperienced in this format. I also wonder about Manpreet Gony. He was the surprise package for Chennai last time, but has done next to nothing since. Maybe he is someone who is ideally suited for T20; or maybe last year was just a one-off. The openers though are the biggest concern, given the disproportionate influence a strong start can have in this form of the game.

Their best team

Much of the team selects itself. Certainly 3-7 are straightforward choices, and Ntini, Gony and Balaji will join Flintoff and Morkel to provide fast bowling options. The tricky choice is going to concern the fourth foreign player, which will have to be a toss-up between Hayden and Muthiah Muralitharan. Murali is obviously more the form player. But he was a huge disappointment last year, and if Hayden is dropped, it isn’t clear who will open with Vijay. Given his experience, even an out-of-form Hayden may be worth a punt at the top, at least initially. In that case, the spin bowling spot will go to the Tamilnadu off-spinner Ravichandran Ashwin. Ashwin was the highest wicket-taker in the Challenger Trophy, which was enough to push him into the probables list for the T20 World Cup. This will be a great opportunity for him to perform at a higher stage and grab some more attention.

Likely XI:

Matthew Hayden
Murali Vijay
Suresh Raina
Albie Morkel
Mahendra Dhoni © (W)
Subramaniam Badrinath
Andrew Flintoff
Ravichandran Ashwin
Manpreet Gony
Laxmipaty Balaji
Makhaya Ntini

X-factor / player to watch out for

Albie Morkel. Flintoff is more famous, but has done little of note with the bat of late, and has constant fitness concerns. Morkel, though, is genuinely dangerous with bat and ball; will be available for the whole tournament; and will be playing on home ground. He has an opportunity to be the Shane Watson of this year’s tournament.

Conclusion / prediction

I think there is little to separate Chennai and Rajasthan, though this time their roles are reversed from last year – Chennai probably has the better bowling, Rajasthan (because of their top order) arguably has fewer concerns with their batting. I see Chennai as certain semi-finalists, though my gut feeling is that is as far as they will get. But they are good enough to reach the finals. I don’t see them winning, but they are certainly once again strong contenders. Flintoff’s fitness, and Ntini’s effectiveness, could have a major bearing on how they fare.

KING’S XI PUNJAB

General thoughts

Punjab was one of the most exciting teams to watch last year. They are full of flair players, and two of them – Sreesanth and Irfan Pathan – really stood up to be counted (which is not always the case when they play for India). In addition, they had Shaun Marsh emerge as the find of the tournament. But this year, I think Punjab has more troubles than most. Brett Lee’s form has gone completely missing since his divorce last summer (and in any case, he will only be available for the first two weeks); Sreesanth is missing the tournament with injury; Marsh is returning from a long lay-off from injury; Jayawardene and Sangakkara will be playing cricket for the first time since being shot at, and neither of them were in much form before that. Punjab doesn’t have a solid, dependable player with either bat or ball – it is a team full of flair players, all of whom are form players. And it is not clear that many of them are in much form.

Strengths

Not that many, to be honest, and they are really going to need something special from Yuvraj Singh to stand a chance of even making the semis. Yuvi was a disappointment last year; but, his uncertain Test technique notwithstanding, he has been in tremendous form in the shorter versions of the game of late. Punjab really needs Yuvi to lead their batting line-up. Their only hope is to post big scores and then hope for the best from their bowlers, and Yuvi is the most likely person to help them post those scores. Yuvi didn’t look all that impressive as captain last year; but strategies and tactics aside, Punjab need him to lead by example this time.

Weaknesses

Where to start? Their strong players are doubtful in terms of form or fitness, Yuvraj excepted. But the biggest worry has to be their seam attack. In the absence of Sreesanth, that is an attack of Lee, Irfan Pathan and VRV Singh. Lee and VRV are both coming off injury, and neither was in much form before they were injured. This means that the seam attack effectively depends upon Irfan – which, given his own notorious temperament, is a frightening thought. The responsibility might bring out the best in him, and certainly he was very good last year; but an attack that depends on him to lead it is not an attack that one can expect great things from.

Their best team

Marsh, Mahela, Sanga and Lee will be the foreign players; Yuvraj is a certainty; and Lee, Irfan and VRV are likely to constitute their seam attack. They just don’t have very many other seamers to call upon, so if they had any sense they would play both their spinners, Piyush Chawla and Ramesh Powar. This still leaves two batting spots. Last year, a number of people were tried for those spots – Karan Goel, Uday Kaul, Sunny Sohal – and all of them looked completely out of their depth. I think the best bets there might be Tanmay Srivastava, who is a very consistent performer for UP and who could be a sheet anchor that others bat around; and the talented young Goan all-rounder Ryan Ninan. Playing for one of the weaker teams in India, Ninan has not managed to catch the attention purely with statistics; but those who have seen him speak highly of his abilities. He is primarily a batsman with talent and flair, but his off-spin bowling could prove a useful addition to a weak attack.

Likely XI:

Shaun Marsh
Tanmay Srivastava
Yuvraj Singh ©
Kumar Sangakkara (W)
Mahela Jayawardene
Ryan Ninan
Irfan Pathan
Ramesh Powar
Piyush Chawla
Brett Lee
VRV Singh

X-factor / player to look out for

Ramesh Powar. Part of this is bias – portly Powar is one of my favorite cricketers. I love his attitude, I love the natural flight and loop with which he bowls, and I think he has been one of the most badly treated cricketers in Indian cricket of late. But bias apart, I think he could be a real factor. One thing that the last IPL showed us was the value of good spin bowling in this format, because taking wickets has such a large impact in T20, and wicket-taking spinners are worth their weight in gold. Powar is such a spinner; he showed through his fine performance in the one-day series in England that he can bowl most effectively abroad, even in conditions that don’t help spinners much (of course, he was rewarded for that performance by being dropped); and he is one of the few players in this Punjab line-up who has actually been in form of late. Yuvraj needs to ensure that Powar is part of the starting line-up, and regularly; he could be one of the few silver linings in the Punjab cloud.

Conclusions / predictions

I don’t see any chance of Punjab making the semis this year, and the only question of interest should be whether they can avoid the wooden spoon. There are some teams that have as many problems as Punjab, so it is quite possible that they won’t end up at the bottom. Beyond that, I can’t imagine that much good will come of this tournament for them.

DELHI DAREDEVILS

General thoughts

Delhi was an odd mix last year. When they were good, they were very good. And they were good when their fearsome top order fired, which was most of the time. But the top order was supported poorly by a flimsy middle order, and that ultimately let them down. They also had poor luck with the weather. At the end of the day, they scraped into the semis largely because Mumbai self-destructed in a crucial game; so it has to be said that, on the whole, Delhi underperformed in spite of some moments of sheer brilliance. This time, though, I think they will be a team to watch out for. They have traded the dependable Shikhar Dhawan, but have drafted in the exciting Aussie David Warner, so their top order, if anything, is even stronger this time round than last. And Daniel Vettori, who is one of the best bowlers in the world in this format, will be available for the whole tournament. Expect great things from this team.

Strengths

Sehwag and Gambhir formed the most fearsome opening combination in the tournament last year, and since then, they have continued to be destructive for India in every form of the game. A strong start counts for a huge amount in T20, so in a sense, a batting order that is strong at the top and weak in the middle (like Delhi’s) makes for a better line-up than one that is weak at the top and strong in the middle (like Chennai’s). Viru may have disappointed in the Tests in New Zealand, but his form in the one-dayers was as destructive as ever. And Gambhir is playing the cricket of his lifetime. He was already a star in the T20 World Cup in South Africa, so he will enjoy the conditions and continue to be one of the key batsmen in the tournament. I think Vettori will be another key player for them. He loves bowling in this format, and was a star in the T20 World Cup in South Africa. His lower-order batting skills will also be crucial.

Weaknesses

The middle order remains a bit of a question mark. Neither Dinesh Karthik nor Manoj Tiwary did very much for them last year, and that’s a problem at the fag end of an innings, especially in a tight chase. Since then, DK has been in fine domestic form, but Tiwary has done little of note even in the Ranji Trophy. There was speculation that he would be traded to Kolkata, and frankly, Delhi would have done better to retain Dhawan and get rid of Tiwary. Like last year, it’s the middle order that Delhi would be worried about this year, though if DK carries his domestic form into this tournament then some of that worry will be assuaged.

Their best team

Sehwag, Gambhir and Warner will be at the top, though if I was the team management I would send Warner out to open with Viru. This way, Gambhir can play at 3, which will help impart some stability to the middle order and mid-innings. The no. 4 spot is a toss-up between A.B. de Villiers and Tillakaratne Dilshan. Both disappointed last year, but both have been in terrific form for their countries since. In South African conditions, AB should get the nod first. Vettori and Mishra will form the spin duo, while McGrath will lead the seam attack. V. Yo Mahesh was most impressive last year, and should partner him. The third seamer will be a toss-up. The leading candidates would be the two left-armers, Ashish Nehra and Pradeep Sangwan, with Nehra having the advantage of having played in South Africa. However, I would take a punt on young Umesh Yadav, on whom more below.

Likely XI:

David Warner
Virendra Sehwag ©
Gautam Gambhir
A.B. de Villiers
Dinesh Karthik (W)
Manoj Tiwary
Daniel Vettori
Amit Mishra
V. Yo Mahesh
Glenn McGrath
Umesh Yadav

X-factor / playing to watch out for

I would like to see what Umesh Yadav is capable of. That was a very clever pick by Delhi. Only 19, he has had a searing first year of domestic cricket for Vidharba. He is quick, very quick, and had Rahul Dravid hopping before cleaning him up in a Duleep Trophy game. The other tear-away quicks that India has brought in of late haven’t lived up to their billing – VRV Singh has faded away completely, while Munaf Patel has settled into being a line-and-length medium pacer in the mold of Angus Fraser. Delhi’s other seamers are all military medium pace, so Yadav will give them something different. He will also enjoy bowling in South African conditions. Regardless of the role he plays for Delhi, he will benefit greatly from his stint with the team, especially since Delhi’s bowling coaches are T.A. Sekhar and Dennis Lillee (not to mention the benefits of playing alongside McGrath). Watch this young lad’s progress – it could have a bearing on Indian cricket in years to come.

Conclusions / prediction

In terms of quality, there is little to separate Delhi, Chennai and Rajasthan, though the Royals probably have the weakest bowling attack of the three. However, I am going to stick my neck out and say that Delhi has the best chance of winning of the three. This is because top order batting and wicket-taking spin bowling have disproportionate effects in T20 cricket. Delhi’s top 3 are scary good, and they have the best spinner in the world in this format in the ranks, supported by another spinner who showed last year that he too could be a match-winner. They also have a terrific fielding outfit, with de Villiers alone worth 10 runs a game in the field. And finally, unlike with Rajasthan and Chennai, their key foreign players will be available for the duration of the tournament. I think these guys have what it takes to go all the way.

MUMBAI INDIANS

General thoughts

Mumbai was a disappointment last year. They were the most expensive franchise, and the most star-studded, but spent the early part of the tournament worried about Tendulkar’s injury and Harbhajan Singh’s shenanigans. And then, when they recovered to have a shot at the semis, they self-destructed in a crucial game. This year they have made a big acquisition in J.P. Duminy, and look again like a very well balanced side. Only a fool will write them off completely, so I won’t do so. And yet; and yet …

Strengths

They have many. Two of their weak links from last year, Sachin and Bhajji, are now playing very well; they have acquired Zaheer Khan from Bangalore; and they have two quality all-rounders in J.P. Duminy and Dwayne Bravo, both of whom will be available for the whole tournament. They have class at the top of the order, quality and versatility in the middle, and a strong bowling attack. They need to be taken very seriously.

Weaknesses

I think Shaun Pollock will be hard to replace. He was terrific with the ball last year, and his lower order batting has always been vital in any form of the game. Zak replaces him as a bowler, and Duminy comes in as a batting all-rounder, but given that Mumbai has traded Ashish Nehra to Delhi, I think they are still one quality seamer short. Lasith Malinga and Dilhara Fernando will be fighting to partner Zak with the new ball, but the former is coming off a long injury, while the latter is notoriously unreliable. Zak himself can occasionally go for a few, even when bowling well, so against a team that has a strong top order, like Delhi, they could struggle.

Their best team

Jayuasuriya and Sachin will obviously open, and Duminy, Bravo and Abhisekh Nayar will form a strong trio of all-rounders at 4, 5 and 6. Yogesh Takawale was most impressive behind the stumps last year, and should retain the keeper’s spot. Zak, Bhajji and Dhawal Kulkarni are certainties with the ball, and, if fit, Malinga would be a better bet than Fernando as Zak’s new ball partner. So the only question really concerns Robin Uthappa’s replacement at 3. They have the option of playing Shikhar Dhawan, who was so good for Delhi last year, but who has done little of note since. I would personally prefer Ajinkya Rahane, an extremely talented opening batsman who has been in phenomenal form on the domestic circuit. Rahane is amongst the probables for the T20 World Cup, and on form, makes a more compelling case than Dhawan.

Likely XI:

Sanath Jayasuriya
Sachin Tendulkar ©
Ajinka Rahane
J.P. Duminy
Dwayne Bravo
Abhisekh Nayar
Yogesh Takawale (W)
Harbhajan Singh
Zaheer Khan
Lasith Malinga
Dhawal Kulkarni

X-factor / player to watch out for

Obviously, Duminy. He has been one of the most exciting players in world cricket over the past few months, and is one of those players who have the ability to make the sort of all-round impact than Shane Watson made last year. He was an expensive acquisition, so there will be pressure on him. It will be interesting to see how he adapts to this challenge.

Conclusions / predictions

There is so much that is good about this side, and I certainly expect them to reach the semis. But somehow, I don’t see them going all the way, or even making the finals. Some of this is just gut feeling. Basically, their leadership trio of Sachin, Pollock (now the coach) and Jayasuriya are champions; but none of them have had that extra aggression, that aura, that oomph, to be successful captains. Each one of them, indeed, was quite mediocre when leading his respective country, even though each of them is such a thinking cricketer. In T20, having a captain who can do something extraordinary, who can think on his feet, who can make something special happen at the spur of the moment, is crucial in a crunch game. Warne and Dhoni have proven themselves to have that ability; I think, based on what I saw last year, that Viru potentially does as well, his poor captaincy in the Napier Test notwithstanding. I just don’t think Sachin has that, and I don’t think anyone in the Mumbai leadership team has it. They will play good, solid, professional cricket. But will they play inspired cricket? I have my doubts.

KOLKATA KNIGHT RIDERS

General thoughts

Last year, they were a talented outfit that didn’t quite get it together. This year, with Chris Gayle available for some of the tournament and Brendon McCullum available for all of it, I thought they would be dangerous floaters – until John Buchanan came up with his ludicrous multiple captains theory. Now, I feel that Kolkata will have enough off-field problems to field many inches of column space in the weeks to come. Lucky for Buchanan the tournament has been moved to South Africa – Calcutta would have been too hot for him to handle!

Strengths

Kolkata has some pretty talented players, though the two key ones are the ones we saw too little or nothing of last year, McCullum and Gayle. Gayle will only be available for two weeks, but he can be as dangerous as Sehwag at the top of the order, and his off-spin is more than useful. McCullum, I think, is simply remarkable. He is yet to show consistency as a Test batsman, but he has already, more than amply, demonstrated just how devastating he can be in the shorter formats. His availability for the duration of the tournament will be significant for Kolkata, and make their batting far more solid than it was last year.

Weaknesses

John Buchanan. He was hailed as a great coach for what he did with Australia – but the team was good enough that anything he did would probably have been met with success. Frankly, I think that the multiple captains idea is ridiculous. T20, perhaps more than any other format, hinges on critical moments in the game, and having one person who can lead, think on his feet, take charge, and take responsibility is crucial. This was evidenced last year, when the two teams with the best captains made the finals. But more than the merits or demerits of the experiment, the problem lies with the way Buchanan went about implementing it. Clearly, he did not take Ganguly properly into confidence, and to head into a tournament where the captain and coach aren’t thinking together, and don’t trust each other, is hardly an ideal situation – echoes of Greg Chappell all over again. The other captains / leaders / strategists / whatever they are called haven’t worked with Ganguly, or with each other; you would think that even if this hare-brained idea was to work, it could only work amongst people who have already played with each other extensively. If Buchanan thinks that Ganguly doesn’t merit an automatic place in the XI and should be replaced by another captain, then he should have just had the courage and honesty to insist upon that rather than play these shenanigans. I think Buchanan has ensured that whatever chance Kolkata had to ensure some upward mobility has now gone up in a puff of dust. If KKR wants to be a force to reckon with in the coming years, they need to be thinking of another coach down the line.

There are also problems in the line-up, and the biggest concerns the absence of a quality all-rounder. Gayle sort of fits the bill, but he’s around only for two weeks, and he’ll be the first to admit that he’s primarily a batsman who can turn his arm around. In T20 cricket, having all-rounders is very important. You can get away with it if, like Delhi, you have superlative specialists (though I personally think that the way he is batting, Vettori qualifies as an all-rounder for them). But Bengal’s excuse for an all-rounder is L.R. Shukla. Compare that to, say, Mumbai, who have Duminy, Bravo, Nayar and Jayasuriya, each of whom is capable of a quick 50 and 4 overs. I am amazed that Kolkata spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on Mashrafe Mortaza, who may not even make their final XI, and completely ignored another Bangladeshi, Shakib al Hasan, who is the no. 1 ranked all-rounder in one-day cricket according to the ICC rankings. An indication again of the complete absence of thought and planning that seems to be going into this franchise.

Their best team

I would open with Gayle and Ganguly, only because I think McCullum (like Gambhir for Delhi) is better played in the middle order, where his versatility will be handy. David Hussey and the impressive Wriddhiman Saha would be other middle-order batsmen. I would also give a chance to young Cheteshwar Pujara, who has been such a success in domestic cricket for Saurashtra. It will be interesting to see how he can adapt to this format, given that he primarily a technical player. But KKR had a flimsy batting line-up the last time around, and Pujara could provide some crucial solidity. Shukla will be their “all-rounder”, such as he is, and Ishant Sharma and Ashok Dinda will lead their attack. I would play both their international spinners, Ajantha Mendis and Murali Kartik, since I think Mendis is much more likely to make a mark than Mortaza.

Likely XI:

Chris Gayle (C?)
Sourav Ganguly (C?)
Cheteshwar Pujara
Brendon McCullum (C?)
David Hussey (C?)
Wriddhiman Saha (W)
L.R. Shukla (C?)
Murali Kartik
Ishant Sharma
Ajantha Mendis
Ashok Dinda

X-factor / player to look out for

Ajantha Mendis. Watching this genius bowl was one of the highlights of 2008 for me, and in a format where wickets really count, Mendis could be a real factor for KKR. It is true that the Indians handled him better in January than they did last summer; but many of the batsmen he will bowl to would not have faced him before, and I think he will enjoy considerable success in the tournament. It will certainly be good for the game if spinners like Mendis and Powar thrive, as I expect them to.

Conclusions / predictions

I actually think Kolkata is in a better position than last year, because they can draw more extensively on Gayle (who missed the tournament entirely last year), McCullum (who could only play the first couple of games) and Mendis (who was part of the outfit, but for some reason didn’t get a game). But they failed to gel as a team last year, and by all indications they will fail even more spectacularly to do so this year. Their “main” captain, Ganguly, is probably someone who wouldn’t be entirely sure of his own place in the XI had he not been such an icon. They don’t have a quality all-rounder, and their seam attack is led by one person (Ishant) who was a huge disappointment last year, and who perhaps hasn’t entirely adjusted to the T20 format; and another (Dinda) who has been in poor form of late in domestic cricket. Their bowling success depends hugely on how much Mendis can deliver, but I think their batting is stronger than it was last year. Still, I don’t see them making the semis.

BANGALORE ROYAL CHALLENGERS

General thoughts

Bangalore was the Horror of 2008. Deccan was the worse team, but Bangalore’s misery was more public and more ridiculous. I didn’t think very highly of Vijay Mallya’s decision to replace Dravid with Pietersen as captain, but nonetheless I think Bangalore is better positioned this year than last. Some of that has to do with the fact that they have so many South Africans in their ranks, and so probably have more “home advantage” than any other team. But even more, it has to do with their acquisition of Jesse Ryder, who I think will prove a far more valuable player than KP (who will only play for the first two weeks anyway). I think Bangalore, more than Kolkata, is likely to be the dangerous floater of the tournament.

Strengths

Ryder. The India series in New Zealand was the first time I got to see him, and I have to say I am so impressed. What is most impressive is that his technique is impeccable – he plays absolutely straight, and has so much time to play his shots. One of Bangalore’s major weaknesses last year was their opening batting, and Ryder and Robin Uthappa (whom they have acquired from Mumbai) look a far better bet than anything they managed to put together last time. Another major weakness was fielding, as Bangalore had the worst fielding unit in the league; Ryder’s electric fielding abilities will boost that department too. Add his useful medium-pace, and he is in the running for being Watson-of-the-year.

I think Bangalore will also see an improved Dale Steyn. Steyn was a disaster last year, as he clearly thought he was getting a very well-paid holiday and put in no effort. I think he will be a different proposition in South African conditions, and I don’t think he’ll be allowed to get away with such a slipshod attitude by the new coach Ray Jennings.

Weaknesses

Two of Bangalore’s key middle-order batsmen, KP and Dravid, will leave after two weeks (the latter for the birth of his child). KP could be well replaced in the 11 by Ross Taylor, but I think the gap left by Dravid’s departure will be hard to fill. (In the very public and constant tirade that Mallya kept up against Dravid last year, it is easy to forget that, while officially “out of form” and “unsuited to the format”, Dravid was Bangalore’s top run-getter by some distance). They will also have a captaincy gap. Jacques Kallis will take over from KP; but Kallis is no more obviously suited to this format than Sourav Ganguly, and has very little captaincy experience. So even if they get off to a good start, sustaining it without Dravid and KP will take some work. Their bowling is also weaker than last year, since they have traded Zaheer Khan to Mumbai. A better performance from Steyn could make up somewhat for the deficit, but someone else needs to bowl Zak’s 4 overs, and it’s not clear that gap can be easily filled.

Their best team

The top 4 select themselves, and Kallis’s all-round abilities should see him take the no. 5 spot even though he was so disappointing last year. Virat Kohli will take the last middle order spot. If Ryder, KP, Kallis and Steyn play as the foreigners, there will be no place for Mark Boucher. While Sreevats Goswami would be the obvious keeper in his absence, I would actually ask Uthappa to don the gloves so that Bangalore can play the extra bowler – their bowling is weak enough to require that. Steyn and Praveen Kumar will take the new ball, while Kumble is the spinner. Their back-up seam attack will be constituted by Pankaj Singh, who was acquired from Rajasthan; and UP’s young all-rounder Bhuvneshwar Kumar, about who see more below.

Likely XI:

Jesse Ryder
Robin Uthappa (W)
Rahul Dravid
Kevin Pietersen ©
Jacques Kallis
Virat Kohli
Bhuvneshwar Kumar
Anil Kumble
Praveen Kumar
Dale Steyn
Pankaj Singh

X-factor / player to look out for

Bhuvneshwar Kumar. He, Umesh Yadav and Ravindra Jadeja are the three young Indians to pay attention to in this tournament. BK is only 18, but had a terrific season as an all-rounder for UP, getting crucial wickets at first-change and playing key, hard-hitting innings down the order. Acquiring him was a smart move, and the IPL will be a great learning experience for him. He could be someone to look out for in Indian colors in years to come.

Conclusions / predictions

I still think reaching the semi-finals will be a tall order for Bangalore, especially once KP and Dravid depart. But I think they will take some steps in the right direction this year, which is more than can be said for Kolkata. Especially in the early stages of the tournament, they could cause some upsets, so opposing teams will do well not to take them too lightly.

DECCAN CHARGERS

General thoughts

Last, and least, the Deccan Chargers. Last year, they were the favorites going into the tournament, and turned out to be woeful. In the interim, they have replaced V.V.S. Laxman with Adam Gilchrist as captain, even though Gilchrist captained half the games last year and had exactly the same record as Laxman; have replaced Robin Singh as coach with Darren Lehmann, though Lehmann has few coaching credentials; and appointed and possibly sacked their CEO, except nobody was sure whether he was actually sacked or not at the time of sacking. Also in the interim, Gilchrist has played no first class cricket; Andrew Symonds has spectacularly imploded; and Herschelle Gibbs continues to classify as wasted talent. They did a terrible job at the auction, failing to pick up any really significant new signings; and haven’t even done much of a job of drafting in fresh young Indian talent, as some of the other franchises have done. How will they do any better than last year? I don’t know, you tell me.

Strengths

I am hard pressed to find any, though this represents a terrific opportunity for Rohit Sharma. He was one of the silver linings last year, and I think there will be enormous responsibility on him to salvage something for his team this year. This might be the challenge that he needs to turn his enormous talent into something more consistently productive, and if that happens, then at least some good will come of Deccan’s debacle for Indian cricket.

Weaknesses

Where to start? The entire time looks like a weakness to me. Fidel Edwards could be an exciting new signing with the ball, but he can be expensive, and is only available for two weeks. Otherwise, the bowling attack is led by R.P. Singh, who has struggled with rhythm and fitness for the past year, so that is as big a gamble as having an attack led by Irfan Pathan. The batting, I think, revolves entirely around Rohit.

Their best team

Gilchrist, Gibbs, Symonds and Edwards are the best foreign players, since their other options are all Sri Lankans who don’t quite cut it – Chamara Silva (notorious underperformer), Nuwan Zoysa (ditto) and Chaminda Vaas (past his best, though will probably come in when Edwards leaves). None of those three are good enough to make it into the Sri Lankan one-day team at present. Laxman has to play – there aren’t too many other options, and I thought he did a pretty good job before his injury last year – but I would have the talented Ravi Teja open with Gilchrist. Venugopal Rao, who was surprisingly spunky and effective last year, is the other batsman, while Pragyan Ojha and Hyderabad’s talented fast bowler Shoaib Ahmed complete the bowling attack.

Likely XI:

Adam Gilchrist © (W)
Ravi Teja
V.V.S. Laxman
Herschelle Gibbs
Andrew Symonds
Rohit Sharma
Y. Venugopal Rao
Pragyan Ojha
R.P. Singh
Fidel Edwards
Shoaib Ahmed

X-factor / player to watch out for

Rohit Sharma, because not only will his performance determine whether Deccan can avoid the wooden spoon; it will also determine his chances of making the playing XI for the T20 World Cup, and his immediate future prospects with the Indian one-day team. So there is a lot riding on this tournament for him. And Rohit finding his feet can only be good news for Indian cricket.

Conclusions / predictions

The only item of interest here will be the gripping contest for the wooden spoon between Deccan and Punjab (with Kolkata capable of sneaking a surprise in that department). I think Deccan is better qualified to finish last, because at least Punjab tasted success last year, so they will have some self-belief. This team has just not gelled together at any level, and I don’t see it happening now.

STICKING MY NECK OUT

So, sticking my neck out, these are my predictions:

Champions: Delhi Daredevils
Runners-up: Rajasthan Royals
Semi-finalists: Chennai Super Kings; Mumbai Indians
5th: Bangalore Royal Challengers
6th: Kolkata Knight Riders
7th: King’s XI Punjab
8th: Deccan Chargers

Player of the tournament: Daniel Vettori
Most runs: Gautam Gambhir [other possibility: Virendra Sehwag]
Most wickets: Makhaya Ntini [other possibilities: Daniel Vettori; Shane Warne]

New Zealand series post-mortem

I’m not quite sure how I feel at the end of the New Zealand series. On the one hand, our first series victory in New Zealand in 40 years is something to savor. On the other hand, 2-0 would have been a more accurate reflection of the difference in quality between the two teams. We could and should have beaten England 2-0, both at Mohali and at the Oval, so these are three series where the fight was truly won, but the knock-out punch not delivered. A part of me will take that – who would have thought, even a couple of years ago, that this is what we would be quibbling about? But the greedy part of me wishes for a bit more.

There are a lot of positives to take out of the series, in both the batting and the bowling departments.

The batting line-up now has a formidable look to it, and Gambhir, Dravid, Tendulkar and Laxman all came good, while Dhoni is looking better and better as a Test batsman. Gambhir, as I have already blogged, was simply phenomenal, the player of the series without a doubt. Laxman carried on the rich vein of form that he has now shown for well over a year, and it looks, finally, like he doesn’t have a selector’s axe hanging over his head. Dravid looks like he’s back and running – a 100 in the series would have been nice, but even without it, The Wall is back and looking as solid as ever.

But in some ways, the biggest joy of the series for me was watching Tendulkar bat. This is because, not only is he making runs, but he is making runs like the Tendulkar of old, perhaps even better. This is Sachin Mark III. Mark I was the Sachin of the 1990s, sheer, exuberant, unadulterated genius (albeit often genius in losing causes, or without adequate support). Mark II, from 2001-2004, still saw a lot of runs, but a more dour, defensive outlook. A lot of the strokes from the 90s were gone, and the injuries, especially the dodgy tennis elbow, were creeping in and clearly restricting his game. After a disastrous phase from 2005-07 (which coincided, as it did for so many people in this team, with the Greg Chappell years), Sachin Mark III seems to be combining the best of I and II. Glorious shots that had been put in cold storage for years, especially the pull and the flowing drives in the V, are back. But there is also a cold, calculated, almost premeditated precision about his batting now. In the 90s, it was often as if Sachin was batting by instinct. Now, it seems like he is batting at will. He decides the tempo of his innings, decides how he wants to pace it, decides which areas he will pick and focus on, decides which bowlers to target in which fashion, and then just goes about doing it. I still feel that the long-term development of India’s one-day side would be helped if he sat out a few more games to let Rohit Sharma establish himself; but in Tests, there is no question that Sachin has no parallel, even if someone like Gambhir has outweighed him in sheer number of runs this series. Over the years, it has been easy to take Sachin for granted. But now, in the twilight of his career, every innings of his is worth savoring.

The disappointment was Sehwag, and the worry is Yuvraj. Sehwag’s blip was uncharacteristic, and it is hard to put it down to bad form when he was in such sublime touch in the one-dayers. But he failed in the Tests against England as well, so that is two series in a row where he has been falling cheaply while all the while looking in fine nick. (This is unlike in 2006-07, when he looked in no sort of form at all). Hopefully, the Viru of the big hundreds will be back soon.

Yuvi is a bigger problem, because at the end of the series it is not clear whether he has what it takes to cut it in the big leagues. I would personally give him another series – I think it is important to give someone the assurance of ten games before discarding them, and the England series was the first time Yuvi was in the team for the long haul, as opposed to being a stop-gap replacement for Ganguly. So from my perspective, Yuvi still deserves another 3 or 4 games before a more definitive verdict is passed on him.

But the problem is, it is hard for me to predict whether he has the ability for Tests, simply because he has played such little four-day cricket in his career. Pretty much from the get-go, he has been a fixture in India’s one-day side, and a constant hanger-on on the sidelines in Tests. So he has toured a lot with the Indian Test side, without getting a continuous run in the side, but also therefore without playing much domestic four-day cricket. In that sense, I think there is a real detriment to getting people into the Test side through the route of one-day cricket. There is a lot of glamour and celebrity status to be had by playing one-dayers, but I really think one’s game is better honed in the humdrum existence of Ranji Trophy cricket. Someone like Gambhir, who might seem at first sight to have taken the same route, in fact piled up tons upon tons of runs in four-day domestic cricket; not to mention runs on all manner of India A tours, including in Sri Lanka, England and South Africa. Yuvi might have lots of international experience, but he just doesn’t have that kind of four-day experience. And it shows.

This is relevant as we start thinking about the generational change of guard in our batting order. Hopefully, that is not something we need to be thinking about immediately, as I hope that Dravid, Tendulkar and Laxman will carry on for another couple of years. (Laxman, after all, is only 34, which is still relatively young; and I think Sachin has a burning desire to play one more World Cup. Dravid will likely be the first of the three to retire, but he seems to be enjoying his game at the moment, so hopefully that moment is at least 12-18 months away). But it is something that is worth speculating upon.

At this point, the next generation of batsmen is to be found in two flavors. One mirrors the Yuvraj model, which are those who have become household names by being part of the one-day fold. Rohit Sharma and Suresh Raina are the two key names here, though Virat Kohli is also someone who conceivably has an international future ahead of him. Of these, I definitely think that Rohit is Test caliber; indeed, I would go so far as to say that purely in terms of natural ability, he is third only to Sachin and Sehwag amongst Indian batsmen today. But all three of them would benefit from more time in the domestic game, because the temperament to consistently play big innings isn’t yet evident. The worst thing that could happen to them is what happened to Yuvraj – for them to shuttle around the world carrying drinks for the next three years, and only getting 50-50 and T20 cricket into their systems. It would be much better if, when they are not playing shorter version cricket for India, they hone their four-day skills for their state teams.



The second mirrors the Gambhir model, which are those who have scored tons of runs in domestic cricket, and are knocking on doors through sheer dint of performance. The four people in this category are – Subramaniam Badrinath, Murali Vijay, Wasim Jaffer (yes, I still think he has an international future) and Cheteshwar Pujara. Badri has to be first in line here, and surely he would have been far more successful than Yuvraj at 6 in New Zealand conditions; Jaffer has come off one of the most sensational years in first-class cricket in the history of the Indian domestic game, scoring nearly 1500 runs; and Vijay doesn’t quite have those kind of stats, but looked so impressive in the chance he got at Nagpur (and is a brilliant close fielder, which I think is an area where we need drastic improvement). Vijay and Jaffer, of course, are openers, but either could bat at 3; or one could imagine them partnering Gambhir at the top, and having Viru drop down to 4 once Sachin retires.

Pujara is the least known of the four, but I think is a future star if he is given the proper breaks. He is technically extremely sound (and potentially an ideal replacement for Dravid as a long-term no. 3), and has made tons of runs for Saurashtra both this year and last – and hence has the sort of 4-day experience that more glamorous or well-known batsmen like Rohit or Raina don’t. It is very possible that Raina and Rohit will get a lot of media time with some good performances in the IPL, which will then ease them into the Test side because everyone will be talking about them; while someone like Pujara may not even get a game, or may struggle with the format if he does. But in terms of the long-term, I think Pujara is one of the safest bets we have. Hence, while I wish to savor Dravid, Sachin and Laxman for as long as possible, a long-term batting line-up worth nurturing (through A tours and the like) would be Jaffer / Vijay, Gambhir, Pujara, Sehwag, Badrinath, Rohit (or Yuvraj / Raina), and Dhoni. Yuvraj, in this dispensation, looks distinctly iffy. So – give him a fair run, and if he doesn’t cut it, move on. The worst possible scenario would be to keep Yuvi at 6 for the next 2 years, find that he isn’t good enough, and then have a mass exodus of the seniors as well. That will mean building a middle-order from scratch.

The bowling looks equally formidable, even though Ishant Sharma struggled in the final Test with the wind. But bowling in these conditions would have surely been a learning experience for him, and he is bound to be the better bowler for it.

The real joy though was Zaheer. Zak’s bowling now is like Sachin’s batting – he is supremely a master of his art. I won’t put him in the same league as Wasim Akram, because Akram is unparalleled (the greatest bowler I have ever seen, along with Shane Warne). But he is close, and even if the likes of Dale Steyn and Mitchell Johnson may be getting more wickets, I would suggest that purely on skill, Zak is the best fast bowler in world cricket today. His intelligence, control and versatility are simply amazing. He can bowl conventional swing, and get it to move in both directions, hitting perfect lines and lengths. He bowls a deceptively heavy short ball, and the yorker that was such a part of his armory when he first came on the scene before it dropped out is reappearing. He can bowl a bouncer off a long run-up at 125 kph and have the batsman fending because it is onto him so quickly; and he can bowl a searing out-swinger at 140 kph off a short, ten-step run. He can bowl round the wicket, playing simply on the angles if the ball is new, or getting reverse swing if the ball is old. He has become adept at controlling a cricket ball, and more importantly, unlike the Zak of old, adept at controlling his own temperament. That is the sort of maturation that we have not yet seen in Yuvraj, even though they have been playing international cricket for exactly the same amount of time.

If Zak was the joy, then Harbhajan was the surprise and revelation. I have on these pages been unstinting in my criticism of Bhajji over the past few months; but he certainly convinced me in New Zealand. The way he used the wind in Wellington to get drift was just magical. What was crucial was that he was flighting the ball, and flight is something that has been virtually absent from his bowling for the past few years. For much of the past few years, he has predominantly been a flat, defensive bowler, looking to push the ball through and hoping to pick up wickets simply by bowling lots of overs. When he tosses the ball up, he looks a completely different proposition. Of course, there were troughs as well – in Napier, when the batsmen got on top of him, he looked distinctly mediocre, suggesting again that when he doesn’t get an early wicket he retreats into a defensive shell and can be easily handled. But generally, leading the spin attack after Kumble’s retirement seems to have brought out the best in him. And let’s not forget his spunky batting at no. 8 – five crucial half-centuries at critical junctures in the past year is probably more than what Yuvraj is capable of at this point.

For me, Munaf Patel is still an iffy proposition. He did the job at Hamilton, but he remains the biggest question mark in the 11. Purely on talent, I think we need a fit Sreesanth. I would take a gamble on his temperament because his ability to swing the ball both ways at pace would nicely complement Zak’s left-arm swing, and Ishant’s ability to hit the deck, and that would really make us a versatile bowling attack with four strike bowlers. Sreesanth is someone who needs to be taken care of when he is out with injury, and we cannot afford talent like his to go waste.

While the batting and bowling look good, the real disappointment for me was the fielding. Far too many catches were dropped, both at Napier and in Wellington. Indeed, there is no point blaming the draw in the final Test on the delayed declaration, because if he had taken our catches we would have won regardless. Dravid and Laxman remain good slippers, but we don’t have a third, and Yuvraj is woeful in that position; so when those two retire, we won’t just have batting holes to fill, but catching holes. And Gambhir shows quick reflexes occasionally, but is a far from stellar short leg. With the changing of the guard in a few years, youngsters will bring in quick legs - but can they catch?

Indeed, it is because of our fielding that I would say that we cannot lay claim to the world no. 1 spot ahead of South Africa and Australia. We are close – batting, bowling, temperament, self-confidence are all there, and man for man, when lined up against the batting or bowling line-ups of either of those two sides, we can hold our own. But can we really match a fielding line-up that has Smith, Prince, Kallis, Amla, Duminy and de Villiers? Not even close, and there’s 40 runs an innings difference there, before you start counting the dropped catches.

Meanwhile, spare a thought for New Zealand. Their bowling just isn’t good enough to bowl out top teams, though their batting is halfway decent. Certainly Jesse Ryder is a real talent, not just because of his stroke-making ability, but because of his utterly tight defense. I can’t wait to see more of him in the IPL. Ross Taylor also got better and better as the series progressed, and I think Martin Guptill has talent (if somewhat suspect technique against the short ball). The real problem there is inexperience – New Zealand plays such little Test cricket against top sides. The ICC’s Future Test Program is supposedly designed to ensure against that, but like everything else the ICC does, it is a hopeless flop. So, New Zealand will only play their next Test on Boxing Day. How can a team improve its Test performances if it plays Test cricket less often than Yuvraj Singh? At this rate, with Pakistan virtually out for the count, Zimbabwe a shambles, Bangladesh still a third-rate team, and the West Indies bankrupt, one will see the development of a two-tier system in Test cricket, with terrific competition between the 4 or 5 top teams and then a huge drop in standard to the next 4 or 5. And that is bad news for the long term growth and health of the game.